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To: niek who wrote (1151)	7/12/2006 2:41:11 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 42746

Outlook is cloudy for lithography Mark LaPedus EE Times (07/12/2006 1:27 PM EDT) SAN FRANCISCO — The overall outlook for lithography is cloudy. Vendors face slower growth, soaring R&D costs and major technical challenges going forward, warned an analyst with Gartner Inc. on Wednesday (July 12). Klaus Rinnen, an analyst with Gartner (Stamford, Conn.), projected that the lithography equipment market would grow by 27.1 percent in 2006, but he said the sector will go into negative territory and fall by 0.3 percent in 2007. Gartner also raised its capital spending forecasts for 2006, but the firm also lowered the numbers into negative territory for 2007. Besides slowing growth, the industry faces a number of challenges. One of the stumbling blocks is the ability to extend 193-nm immersion lithography to the 32-nm node and beyond, he said. Extending 193-nm immersion to 22-nm "is a pipe dream," he said during an event at Semicon West, implying that the industry must look for a new lithography solution at 32-nm and beyond. There is is a growing sentiment that high refractive index materials for 193-nm immersion lithography are not panning out, thereby implying that immersion will run out of gas at the 32-nm node. What's more, lithography vendors also face a consolidation in the customer base, rising R&D costs and delivering and supporting a broadening product portfolio, he added. In total, it is expected to cost some $1 billion to fund and develop a next-generation lithography (NGL) tool, according to Nikon Corp. at a recent event.