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To: skinowski who wrote (134244)7/11/2006 5:44:20 PM
From: Moominoid  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
My best guess is for NDX we have 5 waves down from April, then ABC up since June 13 and now we are in A down of the next ABC - in the end a sideways WXY all summer long... Of course the ABC up could be the complete B wave and now we are in C down... based on the McClellan Summation though I'm skeptical about that. Not sure what to make of the SPX.

A strong down movement on Wednesday - say to the level of today's low pushes my stochastic into the persistent oversold territory and further falls in price might be possible then... even with rising stochs - the MACD is supporting that notion at this point. So far my model hasn't shown any of the divergence characteristic of that though.

Bottom line - I would be surprised by follow through to the upside on Wednesday. I still see a turnaround on Thursday as likely, but won't be surprised if the stoch stays below 20 and prices continue down.

MA action:

stockcharts.com

Pretty bearish...