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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (31408)	7/12/2006 1:25:47 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 95697

(ii) Depth and duration of trough – if order declines are driven just by memory seasonality and lumpiness and not memory cyclicality, the depth and duration of the impending order decline could be more muted than historical and (iii) CSFB about to break out of "cycle has peaked box"? memory seasonality CSFB making connection to memory sales? There are some problems with NAND (such as possible I-pod delays) but DRAM overall looks good one remark: due to lumpiness it's quite possible that certain business could be pushed out into 2007; to illustrate there were 2 capex forecast published: gartner +25% (2006) and -3% (2007); the other report called for +19% (2006) and +10% (2007) - on first site these two forecast appear to differ greatly - however both lead to the same capex $$$$ for 2007 ($40 billion); if chipmakers push out 2007 might look better than expected. Of course that's strictly a "number game". To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (31358) 7/10/2006 8:41:21 PM From: etchmeister of 31415 the equipment market will grow 18 percent to $38.8 billion in 2006. Survey respondents see the market remaining flat in 2007 and resuming double-digit growth over the following year to reach $44.1 billion in 2008. This would look very different compared prior to Y2K. For almost five years global IC sales deviated from the typical boom and bust cycle prior to Y2K; it would make sense that capex would start following a similar pattern. I also noticed the financial (chip equipment) community is somewhat quiet - very little fretting about "the cycle peaked" lately. uploadfile.info