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To: sitkapacific who wrote (134303)	7/13/2006 2:20:18 PM
From: crustyoldprospector	Respond to of 209892

"... decline will end up being only a wave A of a larger A-B-C down." That is my preferred interpretation. Here is my wild and laughable roadmap: the HUI is due for a 50% correction (gold likes those 50%'ers) of the entire bull, which means 220 before it's done. Conveniently, a move to 220 now would make the A (400 to 270) equal to C (350 to 200). crusty

To: sitkapacific who wrote (134303)	7/13/2006 4:15:25 PM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Hi Brian >>>>>>>>> That may not amount to much outside of my own little world, but for me its enough to wait for the fall to re-enter the sector. After that final wave down I agree it will probably be on to new highs. >>>>>>>>> The wave stuff is over my head - but if I hear you correctly your current thinking is that: (a) we are going down from here, and, (b) at some point in the autumn (Sept/Oct/Nov) we would head back north ..... Is the above a fair characterization of what your thinking? the reason for my post is that I have more or less used the 15/30 year month charts to look at the historical seasonalization of gold prices .... and they would track with your thinking .... but what bothers me is that the March and April ACTUALS for this year rally VIOLATED the historical 15 yr/ and 30 yr charts ..... and I am concerned that (this year) - at least from a seasonality basis - we are in a brave new world and I don't know whats up and whats down. just my dumb ass 1 cent thoughts (I can link you those charts if you want to see them - just have to find them) regards, John McCarthy