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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (57718)	7/14/2006 10:56:58 AM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

>>>JOE has lots of Panhandle land but has held for many years so should not have the land writedowns everyone else will be reporting soon.<<< Ah me. My father brought me up well. You know. Be your own man. Don't follow the crowd. An hour in my room if I did something foolish. Two hours in my room if I explained away said foolishness by saying that the other kids were all doing it. Having said that, even if JOE may be better off because it is on the panhandle and has long term positions, when it gets ugly, the crowd always throws the baby out with the bathwater. The crowd is stampeding, and even though it is stupid, it sometimes pays to go with the flow. JOE will get chucked with the rest of them. Trust me. Furthermore, it is usually the good ones who are the last to fall, and quite often fall the hardest. Their strength tends to retard what is often the requisite purge. Having said all that, I do not mean to imply that JOE is anything especially virtuous. I sold a $45 by $50 July vertical call spread for $1 net, because I wanted to be short, and Schwab really doesn't have shares to loan (they can get them, but they charge 8% per annum). I don't like to buy options (puts in this case) because I prefer to sell time, not buy it. Having said all that, I was feeling rather glum when JOE was $49ish earlier in the week. Today I am much happier. But then again, this is investing. Emotions have no place here.

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (57718)	7/14/2006 11:38:15 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Centex still just above 52 week lows set a while back. If it drops 60% off it's highs like many other builders that takes it quickly to the low 30's. Also we know about it's debt and cash issues that seem to be among the worst of the group.