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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumar89 who wrote (191657)	7/14/2006 6:53:05 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 281500

The report makes due note of this (pg. 119 of the report): The Mann et al. large-scale surface temperature reconstructions were the first to include explicit statistical error bars, which provide an indication of the confidence that can be placed in the results. In the Mann et al. work, the error bars were relatively small back to about A.D. 1600, but much larger for A.D. 1000–1600. The lower precision during earlier times is caused primarily by the limited availability of annually resolved paleoclimate data: That is, the farther back in time, the harder it is to find evidence that provides reliable annual information. For the period before about A.D. 900, annual data series are very few in number, and the non-annually resolved data used in reconstructions introduce additional uncertainties.... One of our main criticisms though doesn't involve the report itself, but the press release that accompanied it. We've noted before the importance of making sure that the press will be able to correctly contextualise a release and the bad consequences of that not happening. Well, in this case the press release annoucing the publication of the report was often inconsistent with what was actually stated in the report. It was titled: 'High Confidence' That Planet Is Warmest in 400 Years; Less Confidence in Temperature Reconstructions Prior to 1600 which is not news at all and almost trivially true. However, it is likely to be mis-interpreted to imply that there is no confidence in reconstructions prior to 1600, which is the opposite of the conclusion of the report. Additionally, the text appears to have confused the key distinction between our knowledge of global mean temperature in past centuries (which is very limited owing to the sparseness of long available proxy data in the Southern Hemisphere, and for which a reconstruction was not attempted by Mann et al or most other researchers), with our knowledge of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature (which is considerably better; hence the emphasis of this quantity in past work). ==== Is there any current way to better assess temperatures from more than 400 years ago or do more studies using current proxy methods just need to be done? [Response: Fund more science to gather more proxies? And to research new ones... - William] ResearchatheIPCC wants done... realclimate.org ================================================= Among the high-priority research areas listed by WG II are the following: Quantitative assessment of sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change. Understanding of low-probability/high-consequence events and of thresholds where major system changes could be triggered. Understanding dynamic responses of ecosystems to multiple stresses at different scales. Development of basic approaches to, and understanding of, adaptation responses, their effectiveness, costs and benefits, and identification of opportunities and obstacles to potential response options. Assessment of potential impacts for the full range of climate change scenarios, particularly for non-market goods and services. Better tools for integrated assessments, including risk assessment and the consequences of different policy decisions. Development of better approaches to integrate climate change, impacts, and adaptation information into decision-making processes, risk management, and sustainable development initiatives. Improvement of long-term monitoring systems to better understand climate change impacts and other stresses on natural and human systems. ucsusa.org