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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (54496)	7/14/2006 9:35:45 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 213183

a comment on a wired blog from a reseller commenting about how hard it is to get macbooks (remember these were supposed to be on allocation through JUNE according to apple's original build plan) Re: Are Apple's Customers Rebelling? By Leander Kahney From: zankeroo I work for a retailer that resells Apple Computer hardware in Canada. Of all the MacBook Pros we've sold since their introduction (a quick tally for our store alone would be somewhere near 150), we have had exactly one come back with a problem. Its battery wouldn't charge, and that was fixed with a quick battery swap in-store. We have honestly had no customer complaints about heat or whining noises, etc. Overall, they are solid machines. One out of 150 is a return rate of 0.67 percent, a very good number if you ask me. Now, let's talk MacBooks. It's been hard to keep them in stock (and hard to order them in, too). I'd guesstimate that we've sold something like 60 of them. We've had zero returns, and no complaints of stains or "mooing." Is Canada getting the cream of the crop of MacBooks/MacBook Pros? Not likely. From what I can see, the perceived problems as reported on the internet were blown completely and utterly out of proportion. While I don't doubt that some people were having problems with their machines, from my own personal experience I have to say that both notebooks are solid performers, and chances are extremely good that if you buy one, you won't have a problem. I type this on my own personal white MacBook 2.0, which I purchased approximately three weeks ago. There is no sign of any sort of stain on its casing, nor on the casing of the identical MacBook that my girlfriend purchased. wired.com

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (54496)	7/14/2006 10:00:03 PM
From: aaplfan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213183

But just to run some way out numbers. This is from memory so don't quote me. Last qtr MAC asp around $1500 iirc. They sold 1.1 million= 1.65 billion. Then 8.5 million ipods at $190 or so= 1.61 billion. Roughly equal Mac and ipod sales. I agree with most of what you stated in the rest of your message but had a couple of thoughts and questions... Then 8.5 million ipods at $190 or so= 1.61 billion. The 8.5 mil ipods were at $201 for 1.71 bil. I think apple will triple the mac business and more, and also the mac ASP will rise. Triple of mac sales in '07 is quite aggressive (I'm thinking up 50-100% but won't be at all upset if you're correct on this) However, why do you expect the ASP to rise? I would expect it to decline (think $1,200 to $1,300 for portables) as they scale up sales in the same way the ASP for the iPod dropped at it scaled: most of the volume is at the lower end. Lets take a worse case scenario and say ipod sales are cut in half from here so 800 million in ipod revenue instead of 1.6 billion. That's one heckuva worst case on the ipod and (hopefully) a safe lower limit. (I think iPod is far from done) Am I correct in assuming you disregarded the gross revenue hit the iTMS would take from such a slide due to lack of a meaningful profit? Additionally the 800 million extra revenue from software etc will increase if mac sales triple. Not sure where you got the $800M: they had $264M in other hardware (displays, networking, isights, mice, etc.) and $324 in misc s/w and service (pro apps, ilife, iwork, os x upgrades, .mac, applecare) and don't know that I'd agree these would scale linearly. More likely, they would scale as some fraction (just guessing: .3 to .5?) of mac sales. Again, with most of the sales growth coming from the lower end (i.e. macbook) don't expect that said buyers will purchase upgrades and add-ons at the same rate as the historic customer base. I do think the IT depts are evaluating the pro models for the unix access which no other system can provide. I would completely discount this. While it would be nice and likely to happen to some degree (i.e. in smaller shops and islands within corporations), not likely to happen in a material way in the near term. Eventually this could be a significant factor but not likely in the next 2-3 years.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (54496)	7/15/2006 11:05:33 AM
From: Cogito	Respond to of 213183

Lizzie - Like you, I'm still bullish on Apple. I think that any declines in iPod sales are likely to be temporary, and that the iPod phenomenon still has a long way to go. I also believe that Mac sales will increase. I hope your numbers are correct, and they get to 3 million Macs a quarter, but even just doubling would have a phenomenal effect on the bottom line. I am concerned about the next quarter or so, because analysts tend to be looking no more than six months out. I am also concerned about the economy in general, because oil at these prices is going to start having a profound effect. - Allen