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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (191812)	7/17/2006 2:24:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The Lebanese PM has stated his intention of taking control of southern Lebanon. Just words, as we both realize the reality dictates the impossibility of being able to carry out such an action without provoking civil war. I think in response the Israelis would state they have exactly one week to move Lebanese troops into the region, halt the Hizbullah attacks, and obtain release of the hostages, or that Israel would "clear a path" for those troops to move in and deal with Hizbullah themselves. In the meantime, Israel could be still retaliating against ongoing attacks, calling up reserves and making the necessary preparations to enter Lebanon should those Lebanese troops not appear. It's been almost a week already since those soldiers were kidnapped and Israeli troops have not "officially" invaded Lebanon. They'll need maybe a few more days of preparations to position the necessary forces on the Lebanese border and commence ground operations. In the meantime, they've undermined their cause (but not totally) by not exerting the necessary pressure upon the Lebanese government and denying their cowardly PM the ability to logically assert that he didn't have a final chance to do what he should have done 6 years ago. Just a matter of process, IMO.. Not substance. You and I both know the only resolution of this is going to be Israel moving into Lebanon to dismantle Hizbullah's arms caches and military infrastructure. But these past few days could have been used to greater utility by "offering" Lebanon assistance in reining in Hizbullah. As always.. I appreciate your opinion though. Hawk