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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (191830)	7/16/2006 11:37:23 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

If Israel waited any longer, Iran would have become a bigger factor. The quick response was necessary to create the most amount of short term damage with the least amount of regional conflict or disruption of the balance of power. Iran never got a chance to issue ultimatums to Israel not to attack the Hezbelloh. They were forced to draw the line with Syria and say, "Now, if you attack Syria, we are going to blow you to pieces." Who the hell said anything about Syria in the first place? Good points, Keith. Much as I would have liked to see Israel do some kind of deal with the government of Lebanon to disarm Hizbullah, one has to remember that Hizbullah is PART of the government of Lebanon, which means the diplomacy would have accomplished nothing but giving Hizbullah lots of warning and a chance to go to ground and prepare their Iranian backers. Likewise I feel really bad seeing Israel bomb the airport and highways in Lebanon, knowing that most of the Lebanese hate Hizbullah. But what else can Israel do? How do you separate a "Lebanese" highway or airport from a "Hizbullah" highway or airport? It's not like the Lebanese army is prepared to cut off Hizbullah's access to any part of Lebanon.

To: Keith Feral who wrote (191830)	7/17/2006 1:22:34 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Iran never got a chance to issue ultimatums to Israel not to attack the Hezbelloh. They were forced to draw the line with Syria and say, "Now, if you attack Syria, we are going to blow you to pieces." Who the hell said anything about Syria in the first place? Interesting point. But do you think it would really matter to the Israelis if Iran threatened them? After all, Ahmadinejad has been threatening them since he came into office and Iran is functionally one of the few supporters that the new Hamas government has, and thus, Iran has been threatening Israel over the recent Gaza retaliation. But in reality, what can Iran do, outside of send a few thousand IRGC fanatics into Lebanon? They apparently ALREADY have some 200 who are alleged to have been responsible for striking that Israeli ship, and thus, have committed an act of war against Israel. But my point what not on the reality of the situation regarding Hizbullah, merely the IMAGE that Israel conveys as trying to be as "reasonable" as any country can be, having been attack, 8 soldiers killed and 2 taken hostage. This dipsh*t Prime Minister in Lebanon has been able to take the position that Lebanon has been attacked by Israel and not been held to account for the fact that over the past 6 years they have permitted Hizbullah to assemble a military force that exceeds the capabilities of Lebanon's government. We'll see how it plays out in coming days, as the die has already been cast, IMO. But were I Olmert, I would have liked to paint the Lebanese government into the corner of having to admit that they need help to disarm this terrorist organization that is threatening the sovereignty of Lebanon and extending a face saving "carrot and stick" approach of "we can do what needs to be done together, or we'll do it by ourselves". As it stands, Lebanon's PM is now able to assert (unreasonably considering the past 6 years) that Israel is invading them. And that undermines the sympathy that Israel was initially engendering from the international community. But we all know that the reality in the end, is that Israel is going to be required to bear the sacrifice of undertaking the deadly "grunt work" of disarming the Hizbullah caches of weapons and routing their militia. There is still the opportunity to "bang that chime", but each day of bombing without publicly declaring that they are they are there to assist Lebanon, but if necessary, will take the necessary actions themselves failing to receive cooperation from the Lebanese government. Japan is considering it's options against N Korea. More than likely, we need to make sure the Japs don't try anything crazy against N Korea to show their military self determination. I trust they find a strike would be against their constitution. As I've previously mentioned, the Chinese have more incentive in preventing a re-militarization of Japanese regional policies, let alone an increase in Japan's military forces. They don't want to have a rival to political power in the region, let alone the memories of a militarized Japan brings to mind for the average Chinese person. I'm hopeful that the rising level of bellicosity from Koizumi's government will send the proper "signals" to Bejing that they'd better get their little prodigal son to mind his manners. Otherwise, China might find itself facing even more opposition from the Japanese over Taiwan, as well as a reduction in investment capital from Japanese companies. Hawk