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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RMF who wrote (191844)	7/17/2006 2:11:35 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I don't think it would be Kim wanting to go to war and the military being against it. I think the military would be the ones saying we can't accept all these indignaties and FORCING Kim to go to war or be overthrown. That's certainly a possible scenario, but only if they've deluded themselves into really believing they can actually win such a war. More likely, as in Iraq, the N. Korean military is full of "yes-men" who are dreadfully afraid of critizing the decisions of the "Dear Son". But these military leaders would be emboldened if certain "positive signals" were sent by Bejing that it's time for Kim Jong Il to disappear and that China would work to create a process of succession without the country collapsing in upon itself. One thing to bear in mind is that the primary source of personal political power for most of the Generals in totalitarian regimes are their military forces. If those forces are destroyed, so is their personal status in that society (and quite possibly their lives). These kinds of Generals like their "toys" and don't want to see them needlessly destroyed, IMO. They want to fight battles they KNOW they can win. The last thing they want is to face a "loss of face" by losing another war. If you ever see those OLD Generals standing in front of Kim at ceremonies with so many medals on their chests that they have a hard time standing up, then you have to wonder if they might not want to go out in a blaze of glory and just screw the "Dear Son". I doubt it.. They got old for a very good reason and they probably don't want to lose what they accumulated over the years of fighting the savage internal politial battles as they climb the Communist ladder to power. I think the N. Korean mindset is very similar to the Arab. Better to bluster and rain down a shower of threats in order to save political face, but really do nothing overly provocative that might initiate a major response. It's when they get quiet that we need to start to worry. Hawk