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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JimisJim who wrote (41513)7/17/2006 2:06:46 PM
From: hubris33  Respond to of 108906
 
Jim, I think the refiners are fairly valued in the 70s and don't see where there is room for double digit increases in profits for years to come. Thus they trade with POO or they hit a trading range.

Don't get too simplistic with the notion of constrained capacity. One needs to remember that there is always the annual 'refinery creep' a steady annual increase in the total USA capacity of 3+% as engineers work out bottlenecks and take technology improvements within the shutdown cycles. Additionally with the large profits out there many refiners are in the process of upgrading their plants. A lot of upgrades came on line with the LSD requirements and those small refiners that took deferrals will be coming on line in the next year or so.

Additionally there is some price at which Americans quit b*7<hing about the price of gasoline and actually do something about it. I don't see demand as continuing its growth unabated in the face of rising prices.

JMHO

H3



To: JimisJim who wrote (41513)7/17/2006 2:46:38 PM
From: donc  Respond to of 108906
 
JJ
..feature article in Barron's 7.17.06 was AAPL..a value buy
in 12-18 months cud hit 90-110
don