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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Broken_Clock who wrote (53479)7/17/2006 3:04:28 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Colorado banks loaded with real estate loans
cobizmag.com
7/17/2006-7/18/2006
How similar is the scenario to the 1980s?

News analysis by Keith DuBay

Colorado banks are once again loading up their loan books on real estate, raising some serious questions about the future impact on banks and the rest of us from rising interest rates.

State banks concentration of real estate in their asset base has risen dramatically since 2001, an analysis of federal banking statistics by Will Shanley and Aldo Svaldi of The Denver Post shows. The percentage of real estate holdings by banks as compared with total assets rose from 49 precent to 59 percent during the past five years.

Almost all of a bank’s commercial loan base - loans made to businesses, developers, builders and the like - are adjustable rate loans, typically with much shorter terms than a homeowner might borrow for, say over 30 years. As interest rates rise, interest payments made by businesses also rise, eating up profits and in some cases, causing a business or development to be distressed.

When developments become distressed, all the homes and retail businesses that were supposed to be in them are also devalued, which in turns devalues the entire market. The scenario feeds on itself and pretty soon you have a major real estate bust and a lot of failed banks. Bank failures in turn cause surviving banks to tighten their credit policies, which make it more difficult to expand businesses.

"It's probably the highest that I've seen," said Richard Fulkerson, the commissioner of Colorado's Division of Banking to The Post. "I can certainly appreciate the concerns in (too much) real estate concentration."

The last time Colorado banks saw a large concentration in real estate was in the 1980s, when land and commercial development speculation was rampant. Then came the tax reform act of 1986, which changed real estate development in a big way because developers could no longer mix their assets into one big bag and use the tax benefits of losing investments. Each development had to stand on its own.

I came to Colorado in 1989 as a banking reporter for the Rocky Mountain News, when there were about 35 savings and loan banks. A few years later, fewer than 10 had survived. A couple dozen bank failures also added to the disaster of the early 1990s. Over-concentration in real estate loans was a factor in every one of the bank failures.

And that’s the tough thing about bank failures in relation to concentrations of portfolios in real estate. A down market exposes the riskiest loans, but it also damages real estate loans that were made on sound lending practices.

Right now, commercial real estate is booming, with low office vacancy rates. The same is true with industrial. On the negative side, there’s a record supply of homes on the market, as well as foreclosures. But much of the risk with home lending is taken by the big institutions that buy securitized mortgage packages that your local bank has resold your home loan into. (That’s why no matter who sold you your loan, you end up, it seems, writing your checks to Citibank loan servicing.)

Not everyone is worried about the concentration in real estate loans. Sturm Financial Group, the Cherry Creek-based parent of American National Bank, has 41.8 percent of its loans in land and construction, according to Svaldi and Shanley.

"We are relatively comfortable with that percentage," said Jim Gustad, chief credit officer at Sturm Financial. "We are not just in the Denver market."

Times have indeed changed in Colorado’s more versatile economy. And banking deregulation, another factor in all the bank failures of the early 1990s, has been around for a couple decades now, so banks should have their acts together.

Still, there are some eerie similarities to the late 1980s; rising interest rates, higher energy prices, flat wages and the return of the oil boom in Colorado. Banking officials assure me that lending practices - the home mortgage market notwithstanding - are much more conservative these days than in the 1980s.

I certainly hope so. A rash of bank failures is too painful to contemplate.



To: Broken_Clock who wrote (53479)7/17/2006 3:41:43 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Peregrine Options Prosecution May Preview SEC, Criminal Cases

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. regulators first cracked down on stock-option backdating three years ago in a case that shows how government prosecutors may attack abusive pay practices now under investigation at more than 50 companies.

The Securities and Exchange Commission said in a 2003 lawsuit that San Diego-based Peregrine Systems Inc. committed fraud when the software maker awarded executives stock options and pretended they were granted on the day the company's stock touched its lowest price for the quarter. Since at least March, federal officials have been looking for evidence that companies from Apple Computer Inc. to Home Depot Inc. manipulated the dates of option grants to boost officers' pay.

Regulators this week plan to file criminal charges in the first enforcement case to emerge from the current options scandal, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said. At least 12 more cases probably will follow, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the probes aren't public.

``We are now starting to see that backdating was much more widespread than anybody had any previous indication,'' said Harvey Pitt, chief executive officer of Kalorama Partners LLC, a Washington consulting firm, and the SEC's chairman from August 2001 to February 2003. The Peregrine suit ``buttresses the observation that this conduct is neither new nor unique, nor uncovered by existing securities laws.''

More than 2,200 U.S. companies may have tampered with the timing of executive stock-option grants between 1996 and 2005, according to a study by researchers who helped set off the current wave of federal investigations.

Backdating Detailed

The study found 23 percent of all grants made from 1996 to August 2002, were at low share prices. The authors, Randall Heron at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and Erik Lie of the Henry B. Tippie College of Business at the University of Iowa, used the latter date as a cutoff because that's when the SEC tightened reporting rules for option grants.

The Peregrine complaint, filed in San Diego federal court in June 2003, details how a company backdated options.

Peregrine's directors approved stock-option grants at each quarterly board meeting. Instead of pricing the options on the day of the grant, meaning they couldn't be redeemed at a profit until after the stock appreciated, Peregrine waited until after the next board meeting.

The company's stock administrator then ``looked back at the market price of Peregrine's stock between the two quarterly board meetings, to find the lowest price at which Peregrine's stock had traded,'' the SEC said in its suit.

`Massive Fraud'

That's where Peregrine set the strike, or exercise, price of the options. The company failed to account for the ``positive difference in the stock price'' as a compensation cost and so understated expenses by about $90 million, according to the SEC.

At Peregrine, backdating was part of what the SEC alleged was a ``massive financial fraud'' that included inflating revenue and selling false invoices to banks. The stock-option violations are listed in a section of the SEC's 15-page complaint, and the agency didn't mention them in the statement it released on the Peregrine fraud.

``Given the train wreck Peregrine became, backdating was the least of their worries,'' said Thomas McNamara, a San Diego attorney who represented the software company. ``Now backdating is the crime du jour.''

The current probe into stock-option manipulation includes some of America's best-known companies, such as Cupertino, California-based Apple, maker of the iPod digital-music player, Atlanta's Home Depot, the world's biggest home-improvement retailer, and UnitedHealth Group Inc., the No. 2 U.S. health insurer, in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

SEC, Justice Department

Companies including software maker Mercury Interactive Corp., of Mountain View, California, and San Francisco-based Cnet Networks Inc., an online publisher of technology news and reviews, determined they granted options at below-market prices and didn't account for them properly. The crackdown has cost the jobs of at least 19 corporate officials, among them four chief executive officers.

In the enforcement action that may come as early as this week, the SEC probably will file a civil case in tandem with criminal charges by the Justice Department, the people familiar with the matter said.

Unlike the current investigation, the Peregrine case centered on widespread abuses of revenue-recognition rules in the software industry, Debra Patalkis, the SEC's lead trial lawyer in the 2003 case, said in an interview. Peregrine's auditor at the time, Arthur Andersen LLP, was aware of its option practices, the SEC said in its complaint.

Peregrine's proxy statements show CEO Stephen Gardner received options to purchase 1.2 million shares in April 1998 at the split-adjusted price of $4.56 each, coinciding with the lowest close for the company's stock during the fiscal year ended March 30, 1999.

Auditor Uncovered Fraud

The following year, Peregrine granted Gardner options on 291,750 shares at the lowest closing share prices in three fiscal quarters. At least four other executives also received grants that year priced on days that company shares hit quarterly lows.

Peregrine and new auditor KPMG LLP uncovered the fraud in the first half of 2002, triggering a $509 million reduction in previously reported revenue, at least 44 shareholder lawsuits, a bankruptcy filing in September of that year, and criminal charges against Gardner and 14 others.

Reid Figel, an attorney representing Gardner in his criminal case, didn't return calls seeking comment.

After cooperating with the SEC's subsequent investigation, Peregrine settled with the agency in 2003 without admitting guilt or paying a fine. The company was acquired by Palo Alto, California-based Hewlett-Packard Co. in December 2005.

The Peregrine fraud continues to haunt the perpetrators. Last week, Douglas Powanda, Peregrine's former vice president of worldwide sales, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit securities fraud.

bloomberg.com



To: Broken_Clock who wrote (53479)7/17/2006 3:50:54 PM
From: el_gaviero  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Actually, I agree with you and with Mish, too. I have gotten a little too hot on the subject of Israel. I think the real source of my anger is not Israel per se. They are who they are, which isn't very attractive but about par for the course for us primates. What gets me is the lack of manliness of our leaders, who lack the courage needed to stand up to them and to their supporters in this country, and who do not do what is obviously in the interest of the citizens of this country.



To: Broken_Clock who wrote (53479)7/17/2006 4:24:45 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
SEC head sees option timing charges "very soon"

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The first civil charges will be forthcoming "very soon" in the stock options timing scandal involving dozens of U.S. companies, the nation's top securities regulator said on Monday.

Asked about the scandal after a meeting, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox told reporters, "I can only speak to the civil charges for which we are responsible, but I think, very soon."

The SEC, FBI and federal prosecutors are investigating nearly 60 companies to determine if they have manipulated the grant dates and exercise prices of stock options to boost the profits attainable by the corporate executives who got them.

"Each day, of course, we learn more," Cox told reporters. "But for some time now it's been abundantly clear that these were not episodic instances. But rather there were widespread problems, certainly during the 1990s."

Two finance professors who were behind some of the research that has led to regulatory probes made public a new study on Saturday that showed almost 30 percent of companies in the past decade manipulated stock option grants to top executives at some point.

Cox has said the investor protection agency will offer guidance to corporate America within weeks on how to handle stock options as part of a broader set of rules aimed at improving the disclosure of executive pay.

Companies targeted in the investigation range from health care services company UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH - News), which has warned of a possible $286 million profit restatement, to several high-tech concerns in Silicon Valley.

biz.yahoo.com