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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: damainman who wrote (57906)	7/17/2006 4:24:56 PM
From: ChanceIs	Respond to of 306849

>>>may have taken the lead back as far as price/performance/heat<<< INTC reports Wed, AMD on Thu. I think all are waiting Bernankes comments WED 10:00 in his first Humphrey-Hawkins address to congress. _________________________________________ July 17, 2006, 10:46 am Woe be unto Advanced Micro (AMD), Three Cheers for Intel (INTC) Posted by Tiernan Ray Despite last week’s contention by Needham & Co.’s chip analyst Charles Galvin that Intel (INTC) is still not a “value play,” the tide of opinion seems certainly to be turning in its favor and against rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), now that the number two microprocessor vendor faces the prospect of revitalized competition from Intel. Caris & Co. analyst Rick Whittington kicks off the morning gloom for AMD with a downgrade of the stock from Above Average to Average, noting that a survey of 15 tests for Intel’s “Conroe” desktop chip showed the Intel part besting AMD’s almost 100% of the time. Concludes Whittington: From all reports, AMD’s response to Intel Conroe will be focused on pricing. AMD will attempt to win the performance/$ battle against Intel. To us, AMD’s “response” strategy all but admits to Intel’s superior technical position with NGA. This doesn’t bode well for AMD’s margins as Intel appears to be on their way back to dominance. Others on the street are chiming in on the brightened outlook for Intel. Stifel Nicolaus’s Cody Acree says reports from Asian news sources are that Intel will unveil its “Merom” notebook processor ahead of schedule. Says Acree: We believe an early launch of Merom would be another step in INTC’s turnaround story, which in our opinion is creating a substantial opportunity for investors. We believe the strengths of INTC’s new portfolio are not yet reflected in its lagging share price, a situation which we believe will be rectified in the coming months. And, joining the pile-on, Banc of America’s Sumit Dhanda says that Apple’s new Intel-based Macs could be a factor to Intel shining brighter in the second half of the year: [D]espite widespread market skepticism, we believe our 3Q sales forecast of 8% q/q (vs St +9%) [for Intel] is likely to prove achievable given 1) the improving inventory situation within Asia distribution, 2) the easier comps heading into 2H06 (vs. a depressed base in Q1), 3) our expectation for further share gains versus AMD … and 4) an additional boost to sales growth from the ramp of Intel based Apple computing platforms. As it relates to gross margins, we expect Intel to maintain its “implied” Q3 outlook of roughly 52%, +/- a few points (GAAP basis), given the more benign nature of the price cuts, as well as the improved mix and factory loadings in Q3. Finally … there exists the potential for slight operating margin upside through Q3, and subsequent quarters. AMD Announces its earnings this Thursday after the market’s close, and Intel on Wednesday. Shares of AMD, off 29% this year, are down about 3% this morning at $20.93, while Intel’s, off 28.4% this year, are off 1% at $17.70.