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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (31554)7/18/2006 6:05:25 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95652
 
The October "bloodbath" is certainly a possible scenario. As we get closer and closer to Oct, it looks more and more like it may happen. In the meantime, IMO we should get a short rally here through the earnings season. Earnings should be quite good in general - we will soon find out. Once earnings season is over, and if the Fed raises rates some more, the Oct scenario seems ever more likely.

IMO, the Fed is going to do what it has to do in order to fight inflation. If that means taking the economy into a recession, or near recession, that is what they will do. We are probably well on the road to that scenario already.

Don



To: BWAC who wrote (31554)7/20/2006 12:48:24 PM
From: BWAC  Respond to of 95652
 
<Thinking of buying some LRCX $40 Puts for a few months out, maybe January, hedged against a LRCX share buy in a 10:1 Put/Share ratio.>

Anybody do this? Be about a 15k net gain now if done with 100 Puts and 1000 shares of long Stock.

Now it would be time to start buying some more at 39 to further hedge. Or selling a few August 40 Puts.


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