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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (192089)	7/20/2006 7:02:01 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Hawkmoon; Re: "So it's not really clear to me that Israel actually needs to deploy the same level of force strength as they did in 1982." This reminds me of the expectations before the Iraq invasion that it wouldn't take a very large force. In your calculations, you failed to take into account that in 1982, the Israelis had allies on the Lebanese side of the border. In addition, I suspect that Hezbollah is more effective than the PLO. But it does appear to me that if Israel wants to halt the rocket attacks they need to cross the border in force. The number of rockets falling into Israel is not diminishing, so one suspects that Israeli estimates that they have destroyed 50% of Hezbollah's missile capability are optimistic. From reading the Israeli newspapers, it seems to me that they are trying to put on a face of threatening to invade Lebanon without actually doing it. But I do think that there is a good chance that they will eventually have to do a big invasion. The problem is that they have painted themselves into a corner. But if they were actually going into Lebanon, they would have to call up reserves and we would all know about it. -- Carl