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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (31616)	7/20/2006 11:21:56 AM
From: BMcV	Respond to of 95587

TER threw the analysts a curveball by saying "yep, we're in a downturn", though they don't feel it is likely to be long or deep. On the other hand, FCS was badgered by an analyst who couldn't understand why they had a good quarter and ok guidance, when everyone knows Fairchild historically leads the sector down. (Remember "backlog volatility" in 2004?) And yesterday the Eric Maurice of ASML replied to an analyst who had a theory that downturns could be predicted by comparing ASML 200mm shipments to overall IC sales, by saying, "I don't see that what happened five years ago has any relevance today". You have to think stocks might react positively to all this, eventually. Ten years ago, great results precipitated sharp drops from highs, while now, since everyone sells in anticipation of this, the stock market cycle should be advanced ahead of the business cycle.