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Biotech / Medical : NKTR Drug delivery Company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arthur Radley who wrote (69)	7/20/2006 7:39:31 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 507

The important thing near to intermediate term, is that last sentence: >>Nektar said most of the revenue would be generated by manufacturing.<< Remember the royalty is fairly small. As long as Pfizer keeps building inventory, it barely matters to Nektar that they aren't yet selling it, as the manufacturing revenue will still be rolling in. Hence the raised forecast. That said, yes, it would have been nice to be on track. But the stock was being overly punished for the delay, because, again, Nektar will still be getting revenue from manufacturing. Now if the launch and subsequent acceptance really suck, OK, that will hurt. It'll be towards year end before we really get a feel for that. Cheers, Tuck

To: Arthur Radley who wrote (69)	7/23/2006 1:39:42 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 507

I listened to the PFE CC. They did say that payors seemed interested. Said something to the effect that some payors "P and T" (PNT ?) committees were scheduling "emergency" meetings to discuss Exubera's inclusion in their programs. They plan to send samples to endocrinologists first, and build from there. Assuming PFE is being straight with us regarding their read of payor enthusiasm, that's a very good sign. Unsurprisingly, when one analyst noted the disparity between analyst revenue estimates for Exubera and Pfizer's guidance, and asked if Pfizer was sticking to their guidance, Hank said "Absolutely." BTW, again, I don't remember anyone but Cramer claiming there was supposed to be a June launch. As a side note, it appears that Amylin's Byetta LAR is likely not a big threat. To achieve the targeted once weekly dosing, they must use a frighteningly large needle. Way more painful than the pen. However, other players have apparently gotten around this problem, and we can expect to see a once a week needle stick for insulin in a few years. AMLN has also run into a capacity constraint, so they are going to be flat until sometime in the third quarter. So that perhaps creates a little opportunity. Cheers, Tuck