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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (66532)7/20/2006 6:52:24 PM
From: CalculatedRisk  Respond to of 110194
 
On the Yield Curve, this is a cool site:
politicalcalculations.blogspot.com

It uses Model B from the following paper to estimate the odds of recessions in the next 6 months:

The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions
federalreserve.gov

The odds of a recession in the next 6 months: 38.4%



To: mishedlo who wrote (66532)7/20/2006 7:23:51 PM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
The point we are debating (I HOPE) is that a steepening inversion is not generally good for gold but a steeping curve otherwise is.

No question. One day sure doesn't make a trend but maybe the 5 to 30 starting to steepen (as you pointed out the 6 months to 5 year today was flat) is the start.


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