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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wes who wrote (5512)	7/21/2006 9:45:55 AM
From: wasWoody_Nickels	Respond to of 5867

There are some positive influences coming up. Flash HDDs for PCs, and the inevitable, yet delayed release of MSFTs Vista O/S should provide some impetus eventually. I'm unaware of any new logic product that is 'must have' technology. HDTVs and FPDs are still growing and evolving, but they aren't going to shift the semi landscape. A new game console from Nintendo or Sony might help chip sales for a while. On the negative side are the business and semi cycles, the causes of which are rarely 'under control'. PCs have reached saturation in the US, but China and India are still growing. Cell phones are also near saturation. What is the next groundbreaking hardware application? Does anyone care if they can network their toaster and refrigerator? Not me. And will it be easy enough for the average person to do so? 80% of people can't program their DVR/VCR. That's not a very promising prospect. Looking at Gottfried's charts, once the BtB goes over 1.0 the semi cycle usually peaks in the next 6-12 months. With the market a 6-12 month leading indicator, one might consider taking some profits when the BtB goes over 1. Orders are readily cancelled in this business, so forecasts based on current orders are suspect. And the consumer is definitely being squeezed by higher energy prices. Disposable income will necessarily suffer. Just some thoughts to consider. Don't take any... Woody Nickels