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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (66620)	7/21/2006 1:37:35 PM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

bully wannabees will spend until they run out. the liquidity drain begins at the margin and then infects the core. bully wannabees first cut out the new boat, the new atv, the new house, and the new furniture. then they cut out the new outfit at Nordstrom, Chicos, Coldwater Creek and Ann Taylor. next they cut out the new out for the kids at Gymboree. down on the list is Starbucks and vacations. gasoline demand is most certainly way way down on the list. If you want to watch what Bully Wannabees are really doing, watch home sales, car sales, Walmart, Target, Polaris, Chicos, Ann Taylor, Ethan Allen, etc. gasoline demand? not even close to the top.

To: russwinter who wrote (66620)	7/21/2006 9:41:52 PM
From: bond_bubble	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, I think you are underestimating Chindia consumption. Suppose BA and Bully Wannabes stop consuming. Why do you think, it implies that Chindia stops consuming? What will Chindia do with all those accumulated reserves? Wont they (the govts) build hoover dams, roads, buildings etc and keep the economy going? And all of these consumes lot of raw materials doesnt it? Why should raw materials fall just because Americans stop consuming? Wont Chindia increase social programs and increase consumption by its population to compensate the withdrawal of American consumerism? What is the purpose of those accumulated reserves? Ofcourse, crater here refers to GSE defaulting on those reserves. If that happens, USD should be falling like crazy against all currencies as noone will want to hold USD bonds or provide ANY raw material for USD. Doesnt that mean high price for raw materials for the then meager consumption by America?