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To: sitkapacific who wrote (134618)	7/21/2006 2:56:04 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Respond to of 209892

And howdy to you, Brian. Just posted a little while ago about the oil service "conundrum" As someone has pointed out, looking very much like ominous H&S tops being formed...Today's drop to new lows OIH may not be significant enough IMHO to confirm H&S....but some might take it as such...and ask any questions later...... As to USO....and more clearly with CL (posted chart few days ago)......looks like a MAJOR reversal.....complete with all the accoutrements.....took place a week ago today....and IMHO oil bull will now need quite a rest..... On an FAish basis.........behind my "conundrum" .....had thought that even with substantial declines crude and XOI. the service issues could continue strong.....seeking new supplies, etc. Apparently, not so...

To: sitkapacific who wrote (134618)	7/21/2006 3:32:35 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

Nice post, Brian. Will "keep" it so I remember to check up on those charts. On 180 min, XOI does look as if it fell out of an Ending Diagonal which topped at the April top -- but the decline which ensued was choppy, and then the index made a pretty sharp ascent, printing a new high on July 7. What to make of it? Probably, the chart remains still bullish -- however, the July 7 top could have been Wave "B" of a large correction, with a nasty decline to follow. I can't tell so far. The decline since July 7 is choppy -- so, maybe it still packs some short term bullish potential. Needs to be watched and reevaluated. On OIH, on the other hand, the decline from the early July top was clearly an impulse -- but the descent from the May top into the June bottom was a three-waver, a zigzag. Could the whole thing be an "ABC" down?? I would also note that the sentiment on crude remains neutral... and doesn't help us here very much.