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Biotech / Medical : Welcome to the POTP board, the DPP-IV company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: keokalani'nui who wrote (5)	7/22/2006 3:03:05 PM
From: dr.praveen	Respond to of 90

I had a few doubts reading the same PR about the tgt population. 20% of 45000 SCT pts makes it up to 9000 cases acc to the Company who are likely to get VOD. But if we know before low AT3 levels lead to VOD, so isn't the preventive market lost? Instead of the 45000pts, it will be now 9000 pts who are likely to get defibrotide. I am not saying that this is not a huge population but isn't it reduced by 1/5th? I haven't done a valuation and the upside estimates since I am not sure how much they will be charging for each pt.

To: keokalani'nui who wrote (5)	7/23/2006 8:09:48 AM
From: rareearth42	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90

Wilder and Praveen, Regarding GENT, in the pediatric study, they were indeed able to predict the development of clinical VOD, but just1 day prior to the complication being recognized clinically. I would emphasize that the pre-defined outcome for the study was mortality, but VOD has other consequences, including renal disease and so forth. I still think treating everyone would give the best outcomes, but they'll have to prove it with a clinical trial. I think the potential off-label use of defibrotide and additional indications for the treatment/prevention of acute vascular injury will be a bigger market than treatment/prevention of VOD...common conditions like sepsis (although the ships of many biotech companies have foundered on the shoals of sepsis), possibly re-perfusion injury, and rare conditions with vasculopathy as major complications such as scleroderma. Time will tell!! RE42