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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito who wrote (54979)	7/25/2006 1:51:39 PM
From: shlurker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213182

here's my tortured reasoning ( made on a very hot day in CA): Amusic = 'dollars' made by AAPL in the music sector(iPods,etc) Mmusic = 'dollars' in the music sector AAPL's music-market share is 70% or: .70 = Amusic/Mmusic Similarly, in the pc(computer) sector: Apc = 'dollars' made by AAPL in the pc sector(iMacs,etc) Mpc = 'dollars' in the pc sector AAPL's current pc-market share is 2% or: .02 = Apc/Mpc Someone here said that the PC market size is 8 times the iPod market . That is: Mpc = 8 * Mmusic Ok, now putting the symbols all together, Amusic = .70Mmusic = .70 (Mpc/8) and that means, in order to make as many 'dollars' in the pc(computer) sector as it did in the music sector, AAPL's pc-market share must in the future be: AAPL's future market share = Amusic/Mpc = 70* (Mpc/8)/Mpc = 70/8 = .0875 so its 'only' 8.75% - not 10% as guessed at earlier -------- As you can see, lots of wild assumptions are made. Among them are: Neither market (Mmusic or Mpc) will grow appreciably in the future * AAPL's growth will be entirely be by invading the pc market (It's just an interesting calc based on relative market sizes, for what it's worth )