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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (53792)	7/24/2006 7:47:38 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

It will take a lot of "yets" because so far it isn't a national thing. If you are waiting for aggregate prices to go down (at least in this area), you will have a long wait. It doesnt matter what we wish, it just matters what the data says. Will building slow down - yes, will prices stabilize - will somebody lose money, yes, will some make money - yes, but insofar as the doomsayers crowing about aggregate prices going down 10% or more, that seems to be a huge stretch. What you fail to see is that it IS a national thing. Boston Chicago the entire state of Florida, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Detroit, Boston, the entire state of California, Atlanta, places where a huge % of the population lives is falling. That is where the the biggest percent of real estate "wealth" is located. Places like Danville Illinois or thousands of other markets are meaningless. Every state has bubbles and those bubbles matter. You really have to bury your head in the sand to not say there is a national bubble. OK so Danville Illinois, Podunk Iowa, and Hoopeston Illinois (the sweetcorn capital of the world) are not in a bubble. There are vast sections of mid-america that are NOT in a bubble. It does not matter a bit because no one lives there. Yet one can not say it is just an east coast and west coast thing. Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Las Vegas and other places are in a huge bubble and many of them are plunging in transaction volume right now. Prices will follow. Danville will probably remain unscathed by the bursting of the bubble. Countless tiny towns will do the same. The problem is that the vast majority of housing "wealth" is in the bubble areas. The implosion of those bubbles will have a deep and lasting effect on the entire nation. Still, more implosions of "Yets" are coming, many more in fact. Atlanta is a tell. It was supposed to be immune because 1) prices were relatively low 2) people would move there from Florida to escape hurricanes 3) massive business relocations to Atlanta None of those reasons mattered one iota as you shall see, most likely on Thursday. Numerous other places will follow suit. All of them are still shouting the same nonsense "yet". Mish