Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (53803)	7/25/2006 2:35:47 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, Norman appears regularly on the Saturday morning Fox stock market shows (Cashin' In and Bulls 'n Bears)....otherwise known as the clowniest hour in all of financial television! He makes the real estate crash thread's favorite whipping boy (Bob Marcin) look like Nostradamus!<G>

To: mishedlo who wrote (53803)	7/25/2006 2:56:18 AM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 116555

OK then, analyse this: nukestrat.com AND YOU MUST DESTROY THIS DOCUMENT AFTER READING IT AND ERASE IT FROM YOUR MEMORY globalresearch.ca

To: mishedlo who wrote (53803)	7/25/2006 9:26:31 AM
From: Incitatus	Respond to of 116555

Norman... isn't that the guy who was on RealMoney about two years ago, a permabull with weird views and ideas? I remember taking his positions and emailing them to Fleck for comment. Some of his ideas included that high oil prices means a strong economy while lower oil prices mean a bad economy, so each move up/down of oil tells you whether the economy is doing well. (Lower oil prices = weaker demand for oil = weakening economies.) He says the Fed does not print money. And gold prices are determined by jewelry demand. I can't find much out there, but here's some nuggets: Mike Norman on Gold 9/09/03 01:10 PM ET www.thestreet.com Open interest in gold futures continues to show speculators and commercial interests battling on both sides of the position blotter. The specs (large and small specs) are long a combined 204,000 contracts. That is equal to over 2 million ounces of gold or 637 tons. That compares to a total of 374 tons of gold consumed by investors for all of 2002. Futures participants are now long by an amount that is nearly double the investment consumption levels of last year. In contrast, commercials (gold producers, fabricators, financial companies, etc.), are now short 209,000 contracts, or roughly equal to the long positions held by the speculators. That is the largest commercial short position ever, and flies in the face of continued assertions that hedging is not occurring. The net speculative long position is unsustainable, at least that has been the case historically, Money flows to gold either have to continue, or the price of gold will eventually topple under the weight of long liquidation. Ironically, it probably would take very little to trigger a collapse in gold prices as most of the speculative funds look at technical price levels, and given the size of their commitment to the market, just a small selloff could start a cascade. The problem has been that the commercials are content to sell into rising prices, as they normally do, rather than aggressively sell into breaks, or sell to force a liquidation. We will therefore have to wait for this break to materialize on its own, but if you had enough money, you could cause it to happen fairly easily, I think. Right now, with the market very close to the February 4 high there are two scenarios: One is a failure to take out the Feb 4, $390.90 intraday high. This would be perceived as a "double top" in chartist lingo, and it could trigger some liquidation. The other outcome would be a marginal new high followed by enough short covering to relieve buying pressure here at the top. Of course there is a third scenario which, undoubtedly, is espoused by the gold bulls: a penetration of $390.90 and then a run above $400. Admittedly, I have been bearish on gold for a while, and I have underestimated this steady stream of speculative buying. It has come despite the rise in global equity markets, an upward correction in the dollar against the euro, and the recent spike in interest rates. All the gold buying is probably tied to a general rise in alternative asset investing. The acceptance of futures and managed futures accounts as an asset class seems to be what is behind the spec inflows to gold and other commodities. Recent articles suggest that this is a developing trend (acceptance of managed futures, etc.), however, the markets are still subject to normal laws of yin-yang. Gold has "yinned," now it's time to yang. Would like to add to shorts at or above $384.8 More comedy from Norman. Got to keep this guy around for laughs: Mike Norman Gold is a currency nonsense 9/09/03 02:30 PM ET Funny, don't remember the last time I saw someone paying for groceries with gold bars, or booking a plane reservation over the Internet with gold and not the gold card. This gold is a currency talk is nonsense. Nowadays it is a simple thing to move money into other highly liquid and interest paying real currencies with the stroke of a keyboard. Even backward Saudi Arabia puts money into bonds and other currencies rather than gold these days. Gold is about as much a currency as horse and buggies are good transportation.