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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (143961)	7/25/2006 4:00:28 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

slacks - NAZ up over 10pts and also up for the 2nd day running. That's a record in the last couple of months. Q down nearly $1and following its usual pattern of up first thing followed by a decline for the rest of the day. One sick stock. P/E of 15 seems to me like a level that the stock could begin to base and grow so that it could run in a range from say low $20s to low $30s for the next couple of years or until there is a renewed interest in equities again. The EU announcement could be worth $1.5 to $2 down and the trade commission if it comes in bad could the same amount again and that gets us within a $1 of the $20s. Is this the lowest close this year? What poor shmucks went and bought at over $35 this morning? Best, L

To: slacker711 who wrote (143961)	7/25/2006 4:39:59 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Slacker, TXN CC (trash talking CDMA) / Total Addressable Market (TAM)Discussion, and your reply to pyslent >> What time frame are you talking about? You do expect these percentages to ramp over time to near 100%, correct? Or are you projecting GSM to hang around at 70% unit share for the foreseable future? My numbers are for this year. Qualcomm's estimate for total handsets this year is 290 million. The total wireless market is likely to be a little above 950 million. Both of those numbers likely to be low, but 30% of units seems like a nice round estimate. Your response to Pyslent somewhat clarifies part of the ongoing TAM discussion as you were addressing only the current year with ...” Qualcomm's total addressable market from a unit stand point will be about about 30% of the total and somewhere between 40-50% from a revenue stand point.” However, it appears that we still have a definitional problem as to the meaning of Total Addressable Market. As mobile wireless moves from 2G ( wherein major governmental agencies / regulators restricted the deployment of CDMA technology) to 3G (which for the most part has removed those restrictions) my definition of Qualcomm’s Total Addressable Market (TAM) would include all current wireless subscribers and those potential new subscribers that can afford to purchase a phone / service contract. Therefore, all the current mobile wireless 2.5+ billion subs (?) plus new adds will become potential users of 3G devices over the next five plus year’s and thus represent Qualcomm’s TAM. Of course, it will take time to convert all of the current GSM subs to WCDMA (3GSM). Perhaps when you state—this year’s “ Qualcomm's total addressable market from a unit stand point will be about about 30%”, you are referring to the “capture rate” or the “penetration rate” of the TAM. And, the Qualcomm “capture rate” will be higher from a revenue stand point (vs units) because of the significantly higher handset ASPs for 3G devices over their 2G counterparts.