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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (66825)	7/25/2006 4:51:25 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Jul 25 2006 16:37 trotsky (Dabchick) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yes, i can explain. first of all, to put it in perspective, the aggregate individual issues p/c OI is in the 44% percentile range - which is about average over the past year, but clearly not especially high or low. secondly, this is actually a characteristic often found in impending bull moves - the funds use the index options to hedge the downside ( which obviates the need to sell ) , while spicing returns by buying calls on individual issues. also, covered call selling is always popular when stocks are not in a clearly defined short term uptrend at a given point in time. in fact, the popularity of this strategy has increased a lot in recent years, so it's not unusual to see high call OI in individual issues. lastly, i have found over the years that the XAU index options are a far more reliable sentiment guide than the individual issue p/c OI, except in cases where this OI reaches an extreme, such as was e.g. the case when HMY hit its lows in the $6 range last year ( at the time, put OI had exploded to a record high for this stock - and that was a confirming indicator for the bottom ) . furthermore, what we do want to see is in case a new uptrend DOES get established, is an expansion in individual issues put OI vs. call OI. whenever that happens, the new trend is well supported. Date: Tue Jul 25 2006 15:55 trotsky (@BGO) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it had one of its 'pig' moments today. imo this one should be on everyone's screen as a takeover target - both Kupol and Cerro Casale are of the size that is interesting for majors ( my guess is the NG takeover offer has spurred this interest in BGO today ) . Date: Tue Jul 25 2006 15:44 trotsky (Carmack, 15:31) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved fact is, after the original airing of the program, they have done everything to suppress the story - taking it off their own web site, and going after anyone who dared to post a copy. this tells me that at least SOME of the truth apparently got out accidentally. in any event, it is always interesting to look at information on which a great deal of energy has been expended to suppress it. of course there's no way of telling what exactly in that story alarmed the PTB, but something clearly has.