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To: Moominoid who wrote (11620)7/26/2006 6:20:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12411
 
Thought Saturn only made cars, not Cycles.

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I recall K-cycles, where might I find out more about them? They were extremely long waves, weren't they?

It would seem to me that even if something belonged to a cycle that took extremely long time periods there is enough data going back hundred of years of economic activity to overlay on to.

Not to say that some cycles don't seem to "hit" in amazing fashions just that if the data is "fitted" then it's not going to work.

I used to use Neural Nets. You would find something that worked and you would backtest it for 25 years yet soon as you traded off it, it would go kerflooey.