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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RJA_ who wrote (7832)	7/27/2006 1:26:42 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217720

Disagreement makes a horse race. If Iran ceased to supply oil and oil went to $200 a barrel etc., there would have to be an almost instant transformation of society, not 10 years. Formerly suburban people would sleep at their workplaces, on cots. Suburban or country schools would move to city office buildings. Eight countries have nuclear weapons; Of course this is a lamentable situation but nobody wants a reprisal so Mutual Assured Destruction so far has worked. I haven't seen any evidence that Russia is now helping Iran to produce weapons grade uranium or plutonium. They offered to produce reactor grade stuff on Russian territory so that Iran could have access to nuclear power for electricity generation. But Iran refused this. The press in the English speaking world, at any rate, seems to have forgotten that Saddam waged an eight year war against Iran and a million or so Iranians were killed. You can understand why there wouldn't be much internal objection if Iran does decide to make nuclear weapons. I am told that aiming a rocket with a nuclear bomb inside isn't easy. X bombs Y and instead of hitting Y's capital it hits some desert. The reprisal takes out X's city. The ayatollahs marry and have children; why should they want a nuclear war? The nominal head of Iran wants there not to be a state of Israel. He didn't say that he wants to kill all the inhabitants. He wants it once more to be part of the Moslem world. I certainly wouldn't care to be friends with him but he is not a crazy, foaming at the mouth. He simply says publicly what most Moslems think. They don't think that Israel has a proper right to exist. Remember he was in favor of women attending football games. He was overruled but an unharassed Iran might just slowly become more liberal, (Emphasis on the slowly.) Nobody seems to be worried by Pakistan's bomb. We are selectively influenced by the press. About China and a putative North Korean bomb, We should ask Tobago Jack his take on that.

To: RJA_ who wrote (7832)	7/27/2006 6:05:56 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217720

"I imagine that you point that gushing Niagara of money at something and it gets done, sooner or later." I already explained that it is the "gushing Niagara of money" that keeps Iran trying to develop nuclear capabilities. Lots of civil servants earn a living in that effort. Lots of top brass have their power because they manage that effort. Give you an example: To import ANYTHING into Iran it has to be approved by the nuclear establishment. This points to a lot of power that sector have inside the country. They make a powerful lobby to keep the Niagara gushing.