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Gold/Mining/Energy : PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (1092)	7/27/2006 9:32:10 AM
From: I_C_Deadpeople	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1183

Peak Oil theorists in the past were really just people screaming we are running out of oil. They have never captured the essence of peak oil. Peak Oil is a demand supply issue. There is a "peak" to how much oil can be pumped from any given field or region. The US, North Sea, and now Mexico have now all peaked and as such they still have lots of oil, they just can't extract it at the rates they used to. World demand has been increasing by 1-2 bbl annually - the world is just not finding that much EXTRACTABLE oil per year, hence the concern. If Gwahar peaks or is now peaked then the world needs to find a 3-5 million barrels a day type field just to keep up with demand. And a field that size has not been found for over 30 years. Why do you think the Chinese are going to such great lengths to secure supply? Making deals with Venz, Iran, Russia, Nigeria, etc. They fully understand the demand/supply curve.

To: Don Earl who wrote (1092)	7/27/2006 3:31:18 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1183

>>>One of the most interesting facts to me is all the stories about reserves thought to have been pumped dry which fill back up with oil over a period of time. There's a point where the theory that oil is made out of used dinosaurs stops making sense. For starters, I have a bit of trouble with the idea dinosaurs were ever plentiful enough that we can burn 80 million barrels a day worth of old dinosaur fat and not have run out a very long time ago. I have even more trouble with the idea that life as we know it, voracious as it is, would allow much of anything to get past the top 4 inches of top soil - let alone miles deep in the ground - before being gobbled up by something else.<<< Yes, it is a fact that there are those stories. There seems to have been a group of insane geologists in Russia who tried to argue this. Just as there are people who believe that if you go to the North Pole there is a big hole and inside is a whole other sort of inside-out earth. Also, you are certainly correct that the people who think oil came from dinosaurs are wrong. If you can find anyone who believes that, however, I would like to know who it is. Some oil does come from Triassic and Jurassic sediments, but mostly it's the paleozoic strata that hold oil and gas: Permian, Pennsylvanian, Mississipian, etc. These were laid down hundreds of millions of years before there were any dinosaurs. Most hydrocarbons come from ancient plant life, though of course, some animal life got mixed in with the plants. Not many petroleum geologists agree with anything in what you have posted. Production of oil in the United States has been in a steady decline for about 30 years, and you can read Matt Simmon's "Twilight in the Desert" or Kenneth Deffeyes's books to see huge compilations of facts that show that the entire world is heading into an irrevocable decline. It really would be useful if you would post links to support what you say, or even better, mention some books.