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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (193554)	7/28/2006 1:03:41 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Nadine Carroll; Re: "Carl, digging bunkers to hide in and digging bunkers as a defense line in a conventional military defense are not the same thing." No, guerillas dig defensive lines all the time. What makes guerillas different from regular troops is that they don't HAVE to hold territory in order to win. Guerillas melt into the countryside when faced with superior forces. Re: "I thought guerillas didn't try to hold ground against superior force, but melted away and regrouped?" If the Israeli politicians allow the IDF to make a full scale invasion (which you will know in advance because of the extensive calling up of reserves), then the IDF will be a superior force. And then, of course, Hezbollah will melt back into the civilian population and snipe on the Israelis like they did the last time. As to whether or not the politicians are going to go for the full scale invasion, I really don't know. I think the whole thing is a lose-lose-lose proposition for Israel. They can refuse to fight, and get plastered with rockets, thereby showing weakness and making their country unpleasant to live in. They can make a full scale invasion of Lebanon and mostly solve the rocket problem, but at a price of militarizing their economy, getting their troops constantly sniped at and making their country unpleasant for men of military age to live in. Or they can take the path they are on now, which is to half heartedly fight in Southern Lebanon, thereby avoiding the militarization of their society, but also failing to stop the rockets. Whatever choice they choose, Israel is a sucky place to live. But I think the choice that they're making is worse than either of the other two, so I think that eventually we will see a full scale invasion of Lebanon (and see Hezbollah melt into the civilian population). But don't expect Hezbollah to melt away when they can kill a half dozen Israelis at a time. On a dinky little country like Israel, 9 killed in one day is not completely insignificant. -- Carl