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Technology Stocks : Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (4632)	7/27/2006 9:01:35 PM
From: i-node	Respond to of 8420

Well, I don't think that it really matters if you have never known anyone that deactivated service. Because according to the companies own SEC reports. 46 % of those that try the service for FREE when they get the radio in a OEM new car don't see it as a compelling value. And 1.8% of the paying subscribers per month don't find it a compelling value on a on going basis. The 46% who try it for free, as I've pointed out, didn't want it, didn't ask for it, and may never even turn it on. That's an unfortunate fact. 1.8% on the others is about as low as you're going to get -- just because people tend to trade cars every few years, and some will become delinquent, and a few will cancel because they don't like the product. FWIW, From what I understand. You are not counted as a deactivation, and then a new subscriber when you change receivers by the month to month crowd. The lifetimers are a different story @ XM There are no "lifetimers" at XM -- that is a Sirius innovation which is an excellent churn preventative (they can throw the receiver in the trash and they're still counted as a subscriber). But you're right -- if you cancel a sub and add a new one at the same time, they don't count it as "churn" as it is effectively replacement of an existing receiver. But if you cancel one (because you sold or got rid of your car) then a week or two later add a new one (via a PNP, for example), then I suspect most are counted as churn. Either way, it is minimal. The bottom line is that churn, aside from those who don't pick up the OEM installs at the end of the promo period, is not bad -- XM popped up a bit, presumably because of the cheap receivers in Q4, but historically, they've been able to keep it in a reasonable area. Losing half the OEM subs may be a problem just now, but I believe those costs can be gotten quite low -- other than the subsidy. XM has done an excellent job of pitting Toyota & Nissan against each other for for the data services, and I suspect the subsidies on these installs won't be bad. Certainly, none are like the GM deal.