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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bond_bubble who wrote (66986)	7/28/2006 12:56:34 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 110194

Danielle DiMartino: Economy is roaring like a paper tiger dallasnews.com Excerpt: Merrill Lynch tallied up the number of times the words "slow" and "weak" were used to describe retail sales and housing and found no fewer than 105 instances. Compare that with 97 in June and 64 in the April report. How exact a science has this exercise proved to be in the past? The last time the Fed paused a rate-hiking campaign, in June 2000, there were 103 instances. Nine months later, the economy was in recession. "In other 'words,' " Merrill concluded, "we are clearly at a critical juncture." The key to future GDP growth, which Merrill figures slowed to 2.3 percent in the third quarter, will be consumers' ability to keep spending. Today's GDP figures are expected to show that inflation-adjusted spending slowed to 2.25 percent annualized growth in the second quarter. More recent data on retail sales suggest growth slowed further. Over the past three years, home equity withdrawals have pushed this rate to 3.5 percent. But on Tuesday we learned that national home price gains have all but flatlined. That could make it a bit tricky for homeowners to hit that equity cash-out button to keep spending.

To: bond_bubble who wrote (66986)	7/28/2006 1:44:35 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

To prevent it Fed is going to keep increasing the interest rate no matter what... (I expect a pause after August - but a resumption to hike by the end of the year) What makes you think the FED wants a strong dollar? Mish

To: bond_bubble who wrote (66986)	7/28/2006 12:09:37 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

the raw materials countries will have to start supporting the massive us trade deficit!! Ultimate commodity - oil - richard benson said long ago those countries will support us or they will get shock and awe of our military. Message 22086800 America's Tribute - the greatest central bank hiest in history! And these countries will not (Australia, Canada dont hold reserves) What do you think all this war business is about - jesus versus allah? Don't kid yourself - its about the black gold! Who is more powerful - roman army or mongrol militia? ... I think trade deficits for China and Japan are not far off, and hence the expectancy of USD fall increases. To prevent it Fed is going to keep increasing the interest rate no matter what... (I expect a pause after August - but a resumption to hike by the end of the year) So when are you betting the farm and shorting XLF? Does politician care more about US paper, foreign creditor - or local j5p who can vote him out of office and all the status and power that comes with office?