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Technology Stocks : Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (4644)	7/28/2006 11:34:22 AM
From: pcstel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8420

Crystal Clear! They added almost 1 million gross subscribers in that last quarter and hobbled away with about 400,000 nets. This quarter, given previous Y/Y presentations, and the higher ~22% annualized CHURN and the projected lower 52% conversion rate. The should have net adds of about 350,000. That takes them to about 7.25 million. Given the problems with the FCC. I would suggest there could still be supply side problems for the Holiday Shopping season on certain units in retail. XM is saying that they are going to react to what appears to be SIRI's domination in retail, but these things take time. Those higher CHURN numbers are really going to be chipping away at the disconnects. I would have to take a stab at the need to add about 1.3 million gross additions in Q4 to make that 500,000 net adds to get you to 7.7 million number. Last year. 85% of the 900,000 net adds in Q4 came from retail. This year, you have a much larger subscriber base with higher CHURN figures and a much more compeditive SIRI in the retail stores. Have you noticed that when I make a statement. I actually HAVE SOME DATA POINTS TO BACK UP MY VIEWPOINT? Something that you might want to consider in the future. Regards, PCSTEL