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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (174890)	7/28/2006 12:49:29 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 793864

I must say I'm surprised. I am not. The ceasefire business from Rice is a well-constructed sham. Timing is the key. She and W know that the politics behind determining the nature of the peacekeeping force will take a long time to get sorted out. The US is not acting in any particular haste in promoting such a force. In the meantime, Israel has the free hand it needs because the resistance from Hizbollah has been more difficult to deal with than originally thought. I suspect that the fighting will diminish as Hizbollah realizes that confronting Israeli troops head-on is stupid. I expect it will adopt more guerrilla-like tactics, like not seeking to hold territory. It is important to remember that in many respects this is not about Israel and Hizbollah but a fight between proxies. I view this largely in the light of the US/Iran conflict. Iran has to establish its bona fides as a growing regional power while the US is committed to stopping such a result as allowing it will threaten our oil supply from the Sunni Arabs. Since the US cannot back down in the face of Iran's proxy, it gives Israel all it wants, including time and supplies. Rice's call for a fundamental change means that the dithering and the negotiations will take a long time, fulfilling one aspect of what Israel needs. I don't mean to diminish Israel's role in this as its interests are clearly implicated, but there are broader considerations at play. Oil, oil, oil...........I always think oil. C2@realist.com