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Technology Stocks : Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (4649)	7/28/2006 4:51:07 PM
From: pcstel	Respond to of 8420

While all the talk about churn is nice, the reality is that if the market develops for 30M or 40M SDARS subscribers, there are only two places for those people to go. And slightly more than half are going to end up at XM and slightly less than half at Sirius, most likely. Well, the problem is that you talk about CHURN as though it is some sort fo footnote. You sit back and claim things like, 15 million SDARS subscriers like they all just showed up over night at no costs. CHURN has seen XM lose ~3.0 million subscribers to date. XM spent "hard folding cash" over 1.1 BILLION dollars in "reported CPGA" expenses.. (not actual mind you). And the return for that investment will be ~900 million in revenues this year. We are just talking CPGA expneses, let alone all of the other fixed and subscription expenses that go along with it.. The Y/Y revenue gains are going to start to be measured in single digits starting mid 2007. While the costs to add NET subscribers is going to skyrocket. If you believe these businesses will fail, you must have some idea that these numbers of 30M or 40M subscribers won't be reached, no? LOL!! Do you know how to do simple math?? While all the talk about churn is nice, the reality is that if the market develops for 30M or 40M SDARS subscribers, there are only two places for those people to go. And slightly more than half are going to end up at XM and slightly less than half at Sirius, most likely. Unfortunatly, the in-car entertainment business is not a duopoly. Pretty soon, you are going to have a lot of competition from other providers outside the SDARS realm. Providing digital television, along with audio programming. This is not a pipe dream... The networks and transmitters are up and working in beta test in several markets. I was privy to a demo of this technology at the recent NAB convention in Las Vegas where the real-time broadcast was available These are items that may not fit your agenda. But, they are 100% FACT. And you can chose to ingnore them at the cost of your own pocketbook. PCSTEL