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Gold/Mining/Energy : The Molybdenum Discussion Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: jackjc who wrote (2120)7/28/2006 5:41:17 PM
From: jimsioi  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3267
 
jackjc, good answer re off take agreements and moly pricing.

MOLY demand is going to have to increase rather substantially with as much supply that seemingly will be coming on line. Demand needs to keep up with supply If there's a peaking out of demand two or three years out the price could really fall...
These stocks aren't going to rise if MOLY prices are falling even if their costs are $8 per pound or so...

Presently I am a little (read too much) overweight this whole MOLY play, perhaps in the wrong ones, being long AUA, with reduced position since the May peak, figuring nothing is going to happen there for months; long GPXM, which might start up in the fall during the best of times, and ML.to which has major copper and moly production coming on line in 2007. None of these stocks moved much today; Molybdenum is just not on the tip of investors' tongues...I'll hold on to what I've got for the time being, but will sell any big rallies any of these company's have.

ML.to might rally if its feasibility study, likely to be released next week, is positive and gets noticed...But with expanded production start up more than a year away it'll go through another swoon beforehand..

AUA might get permitted sooner than expected and favorable financing arranged. I'd be a seller on any ramp up that followed, figuring the stock would settle back until production is at hand, I think now, in early 2008, dates are slipping.

GPXM might rally hard on permitting and commencement of operations if the stock market climate is good. I'd likely give that the most room to run...

As to ROK, I should look at that again, see if it trades at all on the pinks sheets....It's like the Hotel California, one can get in but can't leave if there's a selling storm, for sure.

Jackjc, see anything in the above that's too far off base or off the wall in your opinion..