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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (22719)	7/29/2006 9:52:41 AM
From: shres	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Mark Hulbert is officially agnostic regarding market timing, but he acknowledges that statistics prove a handful of people can do it successfully and that a few do it better than most. Since Hulbert ranked Brinker #1 that must mean that he is one of those people who can do it successfully. "Many" experts claim picking individual stocks is a waste of time an can't been done successfully over the long haul either. But I guess you would disagree with them too, wouldn't you Kirk?

To: Kirk © who wrote (22719)	7/29/2006 8:36:50 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

"Why would that matter?" It matters because people who, like me, were considering looking into bond timing methods can see that it's probably not worth spending time on. "It doesn't change the fact Brinker recommended something that went down. You think his rating matters to those who follow his advice?" His rating matters because it exposes the issue that if one is going to be concerned about drops in NAV in the bond market, then one needs to ask the question, what else of comparable risk would do better? Hulbert's table shows that getting out of the bond market wouldn't have gotten the job done, because the total return staying in was 5.3% annualized, vs. 2.1% for getting out and going into 90-day T-bills instead. Going into the stock market instead wouldn't have gotten the job done unless one was lucky, because the Wilshire 5000 returned only 2.1% annualized, the same as T-bills, and besides it would have had suitability issues if the investor belonged in the bond market in the first place. "I think Hulbert's data that that puts people who make no attempt to time the bond market at the top of the list is simply proof that attempting to market time any market leads to under performance." His data from that table don't support that conclusion, but the data you cited for his long term market timing studies sound like they do.