Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Metacomet who wrote (7886)	7/30/2006 7:49:00 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219780

The Rice effort is simply a pointless sideshow, having zero influence over what is happening, because Israel is operating from a reactive stance, with no choice options, and no end game plan. Should an international force be suggested by US-UK in the UN, and even if 'supported' by the rest, no nation will send meaningful troops to a 1000-year conflict that has no hope of ending. My expectation is that the UN, meaning its major participants, EU block, China/Russia, then the rest, ... will do what is easiest, meaning, whatever the form, effectively, ... The message to Israel will be simple, 'stop'. The message to US will be simpler, 'change ways or deal with the fall out on own'. The message to UK will be, 'get lost, or get going'. The message to Hezbollah will be, 'who are you?'. This is what happens when an apparently irresistible force meets an actual immoveable object. In any case, developments, ... Red Alert: Cease-Fire for Airstrikes Announced The U.S. State Department said July 30 that Israel agreed to a 48-hour cessation of airstrikes in southern Lebanon beginning immediately. The reason given was to allow for an investigation of the Israeli airstrike in the Lebanese village of Qana. We assume this is also intended to permit humanitarian assistance and the extraction of civilians to proceed. No mention was made of a halt to ground operations, but it was said Israel reserves the right to strike to suppress rocket fire into Israel. That means that unless Hezbollah also suspends rocket operations, Israel will continue its strikes. It also leaves open the possibility that Israeli aircraft will be permitted to come to support Israeli ground forces that come under attack. If the cease-fire does not halt ground operations and does permit airstrikes against forces attacking Israel, and if Hezbollah does not halt rocket attacks, the announcement means relatively little. If Hezbollah does halt rocket attacks and ground attacks, it will have created a 48-hour cease-fire in the air that Israel will have to deliberately break to resume the war. The Israeli air force has been operating intensely for almost three weeks and clearly can use a 48-hour stand down. This decision, if confirmed opens the door to a cease-fire in place that would leave Hezbollah with a draw -- a victory from Hezbollah's point of view. At this point, Hezbollah has a critical decision to make that will not be known until dawn local time, as that is when Hezbollah has launched its first salvoes at Israel in the past. This does not halt ground operations. The end of air attacks is subject to Israel's interpretation of Hezbollah's actions. It is not clear at this moment that this is as significant as it might appear. It depends partly on Hezbollah's actions and partly on Israel's intentions. Forces that we think are moving forward are exempt from this cease-fire, and may or may not have to move without air support. We will continue to monitor and analyze the meaning of this surprising move.