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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2108)	7/30/2006 2:20:21 PM
From: Cactus Jack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50179

Today gold and commodities dominate the daily news and the market headlines I think the opposite. I rarely see gold and commodities in the "market headlines" at all, let alone dominating them. If you REALLY wanted to use a fair and honest re-pricing for inflation for gold… let’s use this formula: -- Nixon closed the gold window on August 15th, 1971. -- 5 years later (certainly enough time for gold to rise to “fair value”) the average closing price on the London PM Fix in US Dollars was -- $124.84 for the year 1976. Now adjust that for the 116.79% inflation that occurred over the 23 years from 1976 to 1999 and what’s was the fair value of Gold in 1999 ? $124.84 x 116.79% = $270.64 …about where Gold bottomed after it’s 20 year bear market correction from the last mania top of 1980 – a coincidence? That analysis strikes me as equally random in comparison to your strawman argument that the "fair value" of gold would be adjusting for inflation to the 1980 blowoff top price. Why is five years "certainly enough time" for gold to adjust to a free market "fair value" price after years of artificially capped pricing? When Warren Buffett says commodities have become a speculative bubble… gold bugs should listen I haven't seen Buffett proclaim commodities to be a "speculative bubble". On the other hand, Jim Rogers has pounded the table on a commodities bull that he expects (with some nasty interim corrections) to last at least another decade based on historical norms. Rogers is no gold bug; in fact, he expects gold to be among the least rising (on a percentage basis) of the commodities. SOTB, I don't profess to have your training, experience or dramatic flair, but you appear from here to be hellbent on trashing gold on a fundamental basis to support your past arguments that other PMs have at times offered a better risk/reward on a comparative basis. The HUI stocks are another matter altogether from gold itself, based on a variety of factors that affect the value of a gold mining company (and share price) above and beyond the price of the metal. FWIW, jpg

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2108)	7/30/2006 6:00:44 PM
From: yoremopnhoj	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50179

'Central Bankers are now removing liquidity and raising interest rates globally -- not just in the U.S.A.' Maybe you better tell Helicopter Ben this little fact,because while he is talking tough and raising rates he also continues to print money and flood the world with dollars. The Fed is backed into a corner by world events and Gold may very well be the only way to preserve capital. Sorry Slider, while I understand in years past you made some good calls in the two years I have read your rants I have seen nothing that makes me want to follow your advice.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2108)	7/30/2006 7:31:56 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 50179

that was kinda of a repeat of an earlier tome. and i liked it, more on the prose side, but yes, on the content side. and i still do. so hey champ.... update a bit with a wonderful whammy. i think, the troops should get an answer. you nut.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2108)	7/30/2006 8:54:21 PM
From: ecrire	Respond to of 50179

Recent Commodity boom prices are not necessarily related to war and materials for war stockpiling; the Chinese and other Asians with their mind boggling growth rates have engendered huge increases in demand for raw materials, not war driven. On a technical note. the COT report shows speculators carrying only modest longs and Commercials modest shorts, so gold does not appear overbought at this point. Your comments about speculators' psyche driven to "stay too long at the fair" is absolutely right. I just don't think we're there yet.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2108)	7/30/2006 10:42:48 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 50179

I think you're being too contrarian here. I see nothing compelling in your post to make me feel gold has hit an important peak. I like to use ratio charts and in the case of commodities long term ratio charts can be really helpful w/respect to putting things in perspective. The Dow/Gold ratio has a very long history and it's nowhere close to saying that gold is overpriced. Same with gold/oil ratio. A link to a few LT ratio charts. Forget the article itself. gold-eagle.com Buffet was talking about commodities. Sure gold is a commodity, but it hasn't seen nearly the same rate of increase as many of the base commodities. I don't recall Buffet mentioning gold specifically so my opinion is his comments don't apply here. I think gold could get pulled down initially as base commodities get hit, but I'm still in the camp that 4 digit gold is a when, not if scenario and likely within the next 2-3 years. It is a little scary to think about the HUI going from 35 to 400, but 35 was an aberration. And as was the case in the 70's the bigger gold stocks have already started to lag gold in appreciation and will probably continue to do so as this cycle gets longer in the tooth. I still expect at least one more really good move from the big caps at some pt when gold break $750 and/or the gold/oil ratio expands again improving their margins as well. ST I was about 20% PMs recently (prior to buyout, higher now) almost all of it in NG so while I haven't sold there yet I'm looking for good alternatives. ST I'm not crazy about the risk/reward ratio here in gold stocks in general, but there's always value somewhere in the sector and LT we ain't close to being done yet. You've been slamming gold bugs for a while now. You've for the most part been out of the HUI since 150 other than a small period of time. Your bias is hurting your (potential) returns.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2108)	7/31/2006 12:04:09 AM
From: roguedolphin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50179

Slider...Just read the latest tome. The one thing that REALLY,REALLY jumped out at me as being extremely questionable was this.... **"Now adjust that for the 116.79% inflation that occurred over the 23 years from 1976 to 1999 and what’s was the fair value of Gold in 1999 ?"**** Wow! I do recall my mom and dad buying a house in 1975 for $26,000 in a very average 30 year old nieghborhood. That same house was sold in 1992 for $115,000......absolutely NO major improvements to the home or nieghborhood. I just have to believe that THAT government inflation number you used is so bogus as to make THE case for gold!!! Have the "official" government inflation numbers become any more reliable for the 1999-2006 period???? I SAY NO.....probably even more ridiculous. Throw in a looming Chinese Yuan appreciation against the US dollar or an outright trade war with China (brought on by War??) and it could really get ugly. I could go on for hours on this post of other examples of extreme inflation in everyday items for that 1976-1999 period. 116.79% inflation for 23 years???....if you believe that number you'll be gullible enough to believe Oswald killed JFK. Just "shakin the box" for my favorite SI poster and throwing it back at ya..... Your pal, Rogue

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2108)	7/31/2006 12:18:57 AM
From: roguedolphin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50179

Slider....I believe you've been mentioned on Jim Puplava's Financial Sense Radio program. David Morgan talked a few weeks ago of a "investors message board guru" working for a hedge fund that was using some "shenanigans" in his online rants and raves concerning Gold, Silver, etc. Thought it sounded like they were talking about you??? Should have posted the link to the internet broadcast when I first heard it. netcastdaily.com Rogue

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2108)	7/31/2006 2:43:59 AM
From: dumpyork49ers	Respond to of 50179

Brrrrrrrrrravo, good man. Thank you. ps Please don't ever leave.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2108)	8/1/2006 12:10:32 PM
From: Now Shes Blonde	Respond to of 50179

Dispassionately understand your own sentiment.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2108)	8/1/2006 5:31:05 PM
From: ecrire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50179

Fundemental speculation is the attempt to anticipate certain events that will likely affect the price. If you guess correctly you win. If not...well, you know, you've just joined the "herd".if, for example, you believe that China plans to disgorge a large part of its huge US$ reserves and diversify into other currencies and gold, who is to say that $640 gold is "just speculation". There are potential scenarios in this wild, unpredictable world, not under U.S. control, that can have huge financial repercussions. So, given our own domestic debt and credit problems plus world instability and violence, it seems to me the weight of probabilities still lies with higher, not lower commodity prices and gold.