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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (2126)	8/6/2006 7:13:03 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50156

re: ["Slide, any thoughts on most recent surge in Nat gas? Looks like she wants to see $8.00 this morning up .75 pre market. Slowing economy I thought in the past has caused substantial pain for OSX holders. Thanks"] Hey Greenie; re: OSX pain This recent collapse down to OSX 184 took oilpatch bulls back nearly 9 years in time and only 30-40 points on the tape away from the 1997-1998 cycle double top. That's not just pain... that's a nightmare. 30-40 points over 9 years represents less than a 4% annual return. I'd say they've already experienced some pain....and they got saved by Iran & Hezbollah...Bo Collins & a heat wave. But, that's really minor pain. The real pain... is the HUI goldstock index has run "11 fold" from HUI 35 to a 401 peak since December 2000.... while the OSX has returned a "fractal" of what the precious metals have. That's the real pain. I don't have any dog in the OSX fight...but, fwiw -- here's what I see: The OSX is probably fairly valued here -- with the caveat being that the US economy grinds slower & doesn't collapse. Historically, the former OSX 150 resistance should be strong longerterm support. The Natural Gas E&P's have much, much more speculation than the oil service & driller plays imho. We had the insane speculative run up last fall due to the aftermath of the devestation of Katrina & Rita. If traders step back from the froth and take a deep toke on "oxygen and/or reality" (instead of whatever they've been smoking...) they'd realize that even with 20% of the Gulf Coast Nat Gas capacity still out... that we've built massive Natural Gas inventories. And... Natural Gas has a hammer called "LNG" sitting just over the horizon. Month, by month, week by week, day by day... loads of LNG, and a fleet of shiny new tankers ready to offload LNG at a sub $3 all in cost...grows ever closer....all the while inventories continue to rise. Let the speculators get a little giddy here over the run against "Mother Rock" and the "10th hottest month" in recorded history...and the now annual "Joe Bastardi" Hurricane season speculation. Give them just enough rope to hang themselves vis a vis: "All the mistake remain to be made" ...as they keep making them (in both directions). I threw a few Nat Gas E&P puts on the fire ...just a small, initial entry... but, another MAJOR Natural Gas futures "short" may be building here...as there's no shortage of Nat Gas...and shoulder season awaits. Here's my "don't fix it -- if it aint broke" Short Nat Gas Trade: It's a bone, if there ever was one... I like puts...ladder some time and you need to always utilize a basket approach -- as takeout potential is a reality here given E&P shareprice currency. Later, SOTB