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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: go_gatrz who wrote (7444)	7/31/2006 11:35:25 AM
From: after5cst	Respond to of 7841

I would agree, based on your numbers, that share gains by Hitachi seem to be pretty small. IMO, the reductions in 1" and 2.5" market share signal hard times ahead for Hitachi. They've enjoyed a near-monopoly in both markets for a while and I wonder if they're ready to actually compete in 2.5" (it's my opinion that 1" is largely dead and at best a tiny niche market going forward). I also wonder if their situation is difficult enough for them to consider a pricing war. If Hitachi is waging (or planning to wage) an aggressive price war, then the sector is really going to suffer. It's a worthwhile risk to consider in the overall picture. HD makers in the past have shown a remarkable disregard for history and the significant ills a price war creates for everyone. I'm really interested in Seagate's report when it comes. I doubt that -- regardless of how good it is -- it will give significant short-term help to the stock price. But I'm not really a short-term person, so that doesn't bother me: if the integration news is good, it will pay significant rewards to STX holders down-the-road. (Oh, and OT: I'm still on the Yahoo board, but mostly just for quick browsing since the fluff content is way up.)

To: go_gatrz who wrote (7444)	8/4/2006 9:24:33 AM
From: penhead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7841

GG, spot on with your HIT numbers and theory however I think Neff's biggest issue is a potential "price war". Hasn't he been one of the analyst who cries wolf every 6 months or so? Anyway, I'm looking for some decent gross margin numbers to see if his "price war" is legitimate or if HIT has simply taken a couple of large MXO customer by giving the farm away. On another note, Cornholio has been rather quiet lately. She will probably either reiterate what a value play STX is 3 days before the CC or pull her usual BS report out 2-3 days before. I'm leaning towards the former this time around. The M-Systems and SNDK merger isn't going to be good news for STX on a long term outlook. M-Systems has x4 working, a MLC 4 bit NAND chip. . .STX is going to need some new larger storage applications (>PVR sales, pick up the apple video business that is tied into 2007 vehicles, advertise and get PC backup units mainstream).