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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (20710)	8/1/2006 8:23:12 AM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Using 70% margins, or 35% of sales, $12.6B/year in 2012. That's about what lipitor sells now.

To: Robohogs who wrote (20710)	8/1/2006 10:01:39 AM
From: fred hayes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Jon, looks like around 400 thousand patient years to get to this level. At higher volumes I would say margins over 80 percent would be reasonable. I give it a slim chance at best -- must include a large hunk of crohns. I'm not counting on any crohns, just hoping that the safety profile which emerges might allow additional indications. But can't picture 200 thousand or so crohns patients, even by 2012, which is what it would take.