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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benny-Rubin who wrote (6024)	8/1/2006 9:38:45 AM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26116

Forecaster WSI sees fewer Atlantic hurricanes Mon Jul 31, 5:03 PM ET The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will not be as active as initially projected, due in part to a cooling of ocean temperatures this summer, private forecaster WSI Corp. said in its updated tropical weather outlook on Monday . Some 14 named storms will form this year, with four of them becoming major hurricanes with winds over 111 miles per hour, WSI said. That is down from WSI's forecast this spring of 15 named storms with five becoming intense hurricanes. "The reasons for the reduction in numbers are a recent cooling of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures to levels closer to normal and increased chances of El Nino development, which would cause a more disruptive wind shear environment and may result in the last half of the season being less active than originally anticipated," the forecast said. The forecast would amount to only half of last year's record 28 named storms, but it would bring the 2006 season well-above the historical average of just below 10 named storms, WSI said. Last year's hurricane season caused billions of dollars in damage and shut down a quarter of U.S. fuel production, causing energy prices to spike to record highs. "While we still expect a relatively active year, it appears that conditions are in no way similar to last year's record season. In fact, tropical ocean temperatures have cooled quite a bit during the last couple of months and are now only slightly warmer than normal," WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford said. "Further, it appears that we may be in the very early stages of the next El Nino event, which increases the odds of a weak finish to the year. We now expect a year more similar to 2000 or 2003, both of which had 14 named storms," Crawford added. Hurricane seasons have historically brought an average of 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes of Category Three or stronger. Category Three storms pack winds of at least 111 miles per hour, with storm surges of about nine to 12 feet above normal, according to the five step Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale rating system. Last year's Hurricane Wilma was the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record, a Category Five hurricane with winds well in excess of 155 mph at peak intensity. Only two named storms have formed so far this year, neither of which has developed into a hurricane.

To: Benny-Rubin who wrote (6024)	8/4/2006 3:52:39 PM
From: Drygulch Dan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26116

Hey Benny, Chris got me worried, so I hustled back down to PR just in case this week. I set three additional anchors as it came in on Wed but the upper level winds must have ripped it apart. We had a fair amount of rain but no significant surface winds. Looks like Chris is going to crawl forward into the Gulf. It was a fun exercise, better than being a sitting duck in Miami at any rate. I bought an additional anchor just in case for next time. Tomorrow I'll pack things up and head back to the left coast where we don't deal in inclement weather at least not in the summer time.