Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (194271)	8/1/2006 12:12:13 PM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I dont think a cycle of crossing borders and mutual kidnapping is a positive addition to the discussion. The suggestion was to show that there were other options available to Israel other than do nothing or level Southern Lebanon. I just heard that the IDF announced that in the last two days they've wounded or killed 20 Hezbollah. 20 Hezbollah out of 50K+; that's not a lot to brag about. I understand why Israel did what it did. ~"We're not going to take it anymore; we're not going to do any prisoner exchanges anymore and my dick is a lot bigger than your dick." Israeli objectives as I understand them. 1. Diminish the capability of Hezbollah. What is diminished can be rebuilt. 2. Have the UN/Lebanese Government disarm Hezbollah. ROTFLOL. Hezbollah wouldn't disarm before this; they're sure as hell not going to willingly disarm now. For the UN/Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah they're going to have to engage in a military operation that exceeds what Israel is doing. With 78% of Lebanon supporting Hezbollah, it ain't going to happen. 3. Have the UN/Lebanese Government stop the supply of weapons to Hezbollah from Syria. ROTFLOL. Haven't we learned that long borders in the desert can't be controlled? And in a collective response to 2 and 3, if that was a doable strategy the US would have disarmed the insurgents/terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan a long time ago. How anyone can think that the government of Lebanon has or had any chance in disarming Hezbollah is mind boggling. 4. Get the Israeli soldiers back. Hezbollah is probably thinking a bit like Israel. ~"We can't show weakness now. If we gave up the hostages now, every one would think we were a bunch of wusses." Every one of those objectives and their results were predictable in advance. Now Israel is in a bigger pickle than they were before this military response started. They can't back down, because they would be seen as wusses. The see the UN clock is running out and they're losing the PR battle; it looks like they're going to escalate ground action to get as far as they can before it runs out. No doubt that will result in additional collateral damage which hurts Israel and benefits Hezbollah. They could continue to do what they're doing, but that's not going to meet their objectives either. There is no option available to meet their objectives. I think the odds are that in the end there will be a prisoner exchange; perhaps through "back channels" so Israel won't look like it did all this for nothing. After all the dust settles you can tally up what Israel won and what Hezbollah won. It doesn't look good for Israel on the tally sheet. P.S. And in the process most everyone hasn't noticed what a good friend we've been to our ally Lebanon. Lebanon might have been better off if Syria was still there. jttmab