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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (67214)	8/1/2006 2:39:23 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

@Ruppert, part 2 -- trotsky, 12:33:57 08/01/06 Tue Ruppert: "It has a number of problems, and I think the chief problem with that is, that the Euro is not a strong enough currency, there aren't enough euros in the world, there aren't enough euros that denominated treasury assets from the European Central Bank, to replace the dollar." this betrays so much economic ignorance that one doesn't quite know where to begin. 'not enough euros'??? - what is THAT supposed to mean? how can there not be 'enough' of a money? if anything, there are too MANY euros, and there are more born every frigging second! not enough 'euro denominated treasury assets'? - i can only guess what he's trying to say there - presumably, that there's not enough debt denominated in euros, and by implication, not a deep and liquid enough capital market to receive all that oil money. this is not true. the Euro-area is positively drowning in euro-denominated debt paper, both sovereign and private. the annual oil receipts of OPEC , while impressive, would have exactly zero problem finding a home there. besides, the entire debate about whether oil sales should be invoiced in dollars or euros, or even roubles, misses the point. if an oil exporter receives dollars for his oil and doesn't like them, well, there's a $1.5 trillion daily turnover forex market waiting for him to exchange them into the currency of his desire. @Ruppert and the dollar -- trotsky, 12:13:53 08/01/06 Tue Mike Ruppert: "I think I and most other savvy financial experts, people with much longer resumes that I have, are all uniformly of the opinion that the dollar is going to crash and tank." well, one of the first lessons the markets teach the novice is that when 'all the savvy financial experts with long resumees' are on the same side of the boat, their boat usually capsizes shortly. when considering the US dollar, one must always ask - 'against WHAT precisely is it supposed to crash?' the Euro? the Yen? why on earth should it? money supply growth in the Euro-area is currently 300% higher than US money supply growth for instance (i.e., about 8.5% p/a vs. about 2.1% p/a). the only form of money that the dollar is likely to devaluate severely against is gold - the money of the free market, the only one not based on debt and empty promises. however, the other fiat currencies are likely to do exactly the same thing, so it is not to be expected that the dollar will look too shabby compared to them. of course there is a LONG TERM dollar downtrend vs. the other industrialized nation currencies which has now lasted a full 60 years. i guess you could call that a pretty well entrenched trend, and predicting its continuation is not exactly an especially noteworthy feat of forecasting prowess. obviously, Ruppert and the savvy dudes with the long resumees are expecting something more dramatic. which they have already done last year. and the one before that. and so forth. iow - YAAAAWN. @AZAU -- trotsky, 11:29:07 08/01/06 Tue "Consumerism and Consumption will spell the end of humanity on Earth." yep, we're hearing this since Malthus. it has never been true, and never will be. @pm stocks -- trotsky, 11:01:50 08/01/06 Tue not much to write home about today - again, as it were (yesterday's action wasn't exactly impressive either). still joined at the hip with the Dow, an unnatural state of affairs that can be understood (everything's a liquidity play right now), but only deserves short term respect. the proper conditions for a decoupling are not yet in place - the yield curve remains flat to partially inverted. @CDE -- trotsky, 10:00:33 08/01/06 Tue excellent earnings report from CDE - it is not ONLY the higher silver price, but management has also taken the right strategic decisions it appears (disinvestment from Silver Valley, while acquiring Broken Hill). how many pm miners manage to actually LOWER their costs these days? it also appears as though CDE has nothing to fear from Bolivia's new government. on the contrary, it has received additional exploration concessions.