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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (31843)	8/1/2006 9:29:20 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95546

Yes, as the data shows, the "beaten up" smaller cap stocks have greater percentage gains than the more stable, larger cap stocks. Actually, over the years, looking at the data for shorter cycles, this type of action is always true. The smaller cap stocks have higher "betas" than the larger cap stocks like AMAT, KLAC, and NVLS. I don't see why it would be any different this time. <<Will the next cycle's winners be among the stocks most beaten up at the next bottom?>> As we all know, the upcycle starting in Oct 98 and ending in 2000 was an anomaly - it won't happen again in my lifetime. The dot.com bubble was quite unique. The upcycle starting in Oct 02 was much more representative of what we will probably see during the next upcycle(starting in Oct 06?:). IMO though, the valley and the peak of this coming upcycle will be more subdued due to better control of business conditions now compared to the past. If we were to have a real strong recession for some reason though, all bets are off. Don