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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (31859)	8/2/2006 11:50:10 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95565

I think "they" are. <<Are they discounting the next cyclic bookings low already?>> I think this is a cycle that "never got off the ground". Usually at the start of an upcycle, stock prices start increasing a few months later. All the charts you have put together show this action, but not this time. I don't claim to know all the reasons for this poor showing in stock prices for this "upcycle", but I believe a good deal of it is due to the "bad mouthing" of this cycle by all the analysts. If you remember, back in the last part of 05, the analysts were all talking about a lousy 1H06. Then when it became apparent that 1H06 was going to be better than expected, they jumped on a lousy 2H06. Now the word is getting out that 2H06 is going to be "good" so they are pointing to the economic slowdown coming in 07. All of this "bad mouthing" by the analysts has been supported by the Fed steadily raising interest rates over the past many months. It has created a lousy stock market environment. Between the analysts and the Fed, we have "lost" any benefits of of a rising SCE Bookings environment on stock prices for this upcycle.:( Don