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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (59031)	8/3/2006 4:28:44 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

That's true, but of course TOL like most of these were pretty oversold. OBV certainly isn't that dramatic at this point. In addition, TOL (and most of the publically traded homebuilders) have large short interests, which can distort money flow related indicators in both directions (and of course also leads to fairly violent up moves). TOL was a great short off the top last summer, I haven't been in it since January. I understand they have warned a few times over the last 3 quarters, and have cut back on land purchases and land option executions. Slowing volume is death for these guys, it's hard to make it up by expanding margins when prices are flat. But they could bounce to 30 or so without breaking the downtrend line on the weekly, which would be a nice trade for someone who bought at 23 or so....