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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dpl who wrote (54299)	8/4/2006 8:33:10 AM
From: YanivBA	Respond to of 116555

No. I think it will be over much before that. Japanese Government Bonds yield curve: To invert short term rates would have to climb about 2%. By the time it takes the BoJ to get there I believe we will already have a new world wide recession. I think when one looks at the Japanese yield curve the important thing is to look at the long end. If deflation was indeed over in Japan I would expect to see long rates above pre-deflation trend growth. That should be at the very least 3%. That is my nominal lower bound. If we get there I will produce a real number. YanivBA.